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How often have you gotten into a great position against your opponent and just when you think you are about to win a gammon, you leave a shot, get hit, and suddenly you lose the game?Backgammon is often called “the cruelest game.”
Most of the time when this happens we wallow in sadness, wondering why we were so unlucky. But many times, many, many more times than most people realize, it was not just bad luck…it was bad playing.
Isn’t it funny how the best players in the world seem to win more often than the rest of us? Of course not! And that same principle applies to bearing off. Whole books have been written on the subject, so I will absolutely not try to cover all of the possible factors involved in this one, short article.
Let’s start off with a very common situation where your opponent is holding your 5 point and all you have to do to win is get those checkers off of your 6 point safely and you’ve won. (See position 1).
Position 1
In Position 1 you are up 52 pips, so you don’t have to worry much about losing the race. White has an excellent board, so if you do leave a shot early enough, you are a sure loser (as White will Redouble you immediately and you can’t take the cube).
So let’s say you roll a 3-2.
I am pretty sure that most backgammon players would move a checker off the 6-point and take one off. First, you only get one checker off, whereas if you left all three checkers on the 6 point and took two off, you would have 2 checkers off. Also, if you do end up leaving a shot and getting hit, the more checkers you have off the greater chance you have of winning EVEN IF YOU DO GET HIT.
But the second reason is even more important in this situation. That’s 2 numbers (6-5 and 5-6) out of 36 possible rolls. So if you take a checker off the 6 point, YOU DOUBLE THE ODDS of leaving a shot on your next roll.
I have seen many players make this mistake, leave a shot, get hit, and then blame it all on luck. The better you play, the “luckier” you will be, is a very key aspect of Backgammon.
This is a very simply illustration of a key concept in bearing off. You must figure the odds.
Now, let’s take a look at another common situation. Not only are you a sure winner, but with a little luck you might even win a gammon. What should you play?
Position 2
Obviously, there are only two possible, logical plays: What’s your play?
If you moved both off the 5 point, give yourself a gold star. First you get another checker off that way, and as we stated in the case of Position 1, getting checkers off helps you in case you get hit, but in this case, it also increases your odds of winning a gammon.
As I stated earlier, you have to do the math, so let’s do it. Let’s list them and count them:
6-6, 5-5, 4-4, 6-5, 5-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 2-6, 5-4, 4-5, 5-3, 3-5, 5-2, 2-5. By the way, some of the rolls that don’t leave shots, like 3-4 and 3-2 and 3-3 leave you with large gaps and the strong possibility of leaving shots on the next roll after that as well.
Now, what leaves a shot if you clear the 5 point? That’s only 7 out of 36 rolls. Maybe it wasn’t just bad luck after all that caused you to lose some of those games?
Let’s take a look at one more position to illustrate my main point…that you have to do the match. Here you have two choices, take two checker off, or take a checker off the 5 point and move the 3 from the 6 to the 3 point.
Position 3
Even though taking 2 checkers off instead of 1 is generally better, in this case it is far worse because of the odds of leaving a shot on your next roll. There are many rolls that leave a shot if you leave that extra checker on your 6 point, but there are also many rolls that do not leave a shot that are still very bad, leavings gaps in your board that greatly increase the odds of leaving shots on subsequent rolls.
I hope the point is clear.
If you are one of those players who thinks he is consistently unlucky, please remember this:
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How often have you gotten into a great position against your opponent and just when you think you are about to win a gammon, you leave a shot, get hit, and suddenly you lose the game? It happens to all of us, often, and that’s one reason why Backgammon is often called “the cruelest game.”
Most of the time when this happens we wallow in sadness, wondering why we were so unlucky. And yes, most of the time we were very unlucky to leave that shot and get hit and lose the game. But many times, many, many more times than most people realize, it was not just bad luck…it was bad playing.
Isn’t it funny how the best players in the world seem to win more often than the rest of us? Do you think they are consistently luckier than the rest of us? Of course not! They are simply better players, and in the long run, because of their skill, they win more often. And that same principle applies to bearing off. There is a lot more skill in the bearoff than most people realize. Whole books have been written on the subject, so I will absolutely not try to cover all of the possible factors involved in this one, short article. But I will give you some basic principles and some examples to show you why you need to take your time, consider the odds, and do some study about bearing off.
Let’s start off with a very common situation where your opponent is holding your 5 point and all you have to do to win is get those checkers off of your 6 point safely and you’ve won. (See position 1).
Position 1
In Position 1 you are up 52 pips, so you don’t have to worry much about losing the race. So your goal is simply to get those 3 checkers off of you 6 point without leaving a shot. White has an excellent board, so if you do leave a shot early enough, you are a sure loser (as White will Redouble you immediately and you can’t take the cube).
So let’s say you roll a 3-2. How would you play it?
I am pretty sure that most backgammon players would move a checker off the 6-point and take one off. That play is wrong for 2 reasons. First, you only get one checker off, whereas if you left all three checkers on the 6 point and took two off, you would have 2 checkers off. The faster you get your checkers off the more likely you are to win. Also, if you do end up leaving a shot and getting hit, the more checkers you have off the greater chance you have of winning EVEN IF YOU DO GET HIT.
But the second reason is even more important in this situation. If you leave 3 checkers on your 6 point, the only roll that can leave a shot on your next roll is 6-5. That’s 2 numbers (6-5 and 5-6) out of 36 possible rolls. But if you take a checker off the 6-point, you can leave a shot with either 6-1 or 5-1, and that’s 4 out of 36. So if you take a checker off the 6 point, YOU DOUBLE THE ODDS of leaving a shot on your next roll.
I have seen many players make this mistake, leave a shot, get hit, and then blame it all on luck. They had no idea that they had doubled their opponent’s chances at getting lucky. The better you play, the “luckier” you will be, is a very key aspect of Backgammon.
This is a very simply illustration of a key concept in bearing off. The concept is that you have to do the math. You must figure the odds. The plays are not automatic and often not as simple as they seem.
Now, let’s take a look at another common situation. In position 2 your opponent is on the bar and you are a sure winner if you can just get your checker off without leaving a shot. Ah, but the dice god always has a trick up his sleeve, and you roll a 5-1. What should you play?
Position 2
Obviously, there are only two possible, logical plays: move both checkers off the 6 point, or move both checkers off the 5 point. What’s your play?
If you moved both off the 5 point, give yourself a gold star. That play is right for two reasons. First you get another checker off that way, and as we stated in the case of Position 1, getting checkers off helps you in case you get hit, but in this case, it also increases your odds of winning a gammon. But again, more importantly, clearing the 5 point greatly reduces your odds of leaving a shot on your next roll.
As I stated earlier, you have to do the math, so let’s do it. If you clear the 6 point, what leaves a shot on your next roll? Let’s list them and count them:
6-6, 5-5, 4-4, 6-5, 5-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 2-6, 5-4, 4-5, 5-3, 3-5, 5-2, 2-5. That is a total of 17 out of 36 rolls. By the way, some of the rolls that don’t leave shots, like 3-4 and 3-2 and 3-3 leave you with large gaps and the strong possibility of leaving shots on the next roll after that as well.
Now, what leaves a shot if you clear the 5 point? 6-6, 5-5, 4-4, 6-1, 1-6, 5-1, 1-5. That’s only 7 out of 36 rolls. So if you make the wrong play here, you will leave a shot more than twice as often on the next roll! Maybe it wasn’t just bad luck after all that caused you to lose some of those games?
Let’s take a look at one more position to illustrate my main point…that you have to do the match. In Position 3 below you roll a 5-3. Here you have two choices, take two checker off, or take a checker off the 5 point and move the 3 from the 6 to the 3 point. What’s your play?
Position 3
Even though taking 2 checkers off instead of 1 is generally better, in this case it is far worse because of the odds of leaving a shot on your next roll. I will not go in to all the combinations as I did in the examples above, because in this situation it is not just about the next roll, it’s about the next few rolls, There are many rolls that leave a shot if you leave that extra checker on your 6 point, but there are also many rolls that do not leave a shot that are still very bad, leavings gaps in your board that greatly increase the odds of leaving shots on subsequent rolls.
I hope the point is clear. Bearing off is a skill, just like every other aspect of the game, and like any other skill, to master it you have to study, memorize, practice, and use reasoning and do the match over the board to come up with the best plays.
If you are one of those players who thinks he is consistently unlucky, please remember this: maybe it’s not luck at all!
