It gets tricky sometimes

[Simborg]

It is a match to 7 and black leads 5-4 and is on roll. Cube action?







It would be a big error for black to double here, and it would be a big error for white to take if doubled. Black should play on and see if he can win a gammon. Now, he wins gammons only about 20 percent of the time, and he loses the game about 20 percent of the time, so a lot of people think that you should just double and hope white takes, or even if he drops, you are now a 75% favorite to win the match. But there are other factors involved.

If you play on for the gammon and things go badly, you can still double later....you can double if it looks like you are getting into trouble. But if things go well, those gammon odds can go way up with little risk of losing the game.