It's a cruel game

[Simborg]

In the position below, White just rolled a terrible number to leave blots against Black's excellent back game. Now, Black is on roll. Should Black double? If Black doubles, should White take?






As you can see from Snowie's evaluation below, it would be a blunder NOT to double, and it would be a blunder NOT to take.

In the actual game, which was a good-sized money game, Black did double but White dropped. With all those shots, it is certainly understandable why White would drop, but if he gets lucky and gets missed he wins most of those games and a few gammons along the way, and even if one checker gets hit, he still wins a reasonable number of those games. It's all about odds and risk/reward.

[giannisp]

32 times out of 36 white does get hit. Furthermore it's about 80-90% to get a second checker hit , also ! I think you have to be pretty sure for this take over the board.Also it's a money game. If you regularly gamble let's say about A$ , and the stakes here have gone up to 4A, or 8A, who would accuse white of making a bad choice when he drops the cube( although Snowie says it's technically right to take??) Maybe I'm totally wrong here , but that's my point of view here!!!!

[Simborg]

What makes this a take, or anything a take, is math. On most cubes, when you take, you are an underdog and you are going to lose money. And you are going to lose 4, by taking, instead of two. But if you win enough (over 25% in a money game assuming no gammons, as is the situation here for white) you end up losing less by taking. So the math is irrefutable. Yes, you lose more a lot of times, but in the long run, you save money by taking.

What most people don't realize in positions like this is that EVEN THOUGH white gets hit most of the time, that doesn't mean he loses. In fact, after he gets hit and then doesn't come in on the next roll, he still wins about 10 percent of the time.

And your are right that often he will get hit twice, but even then, he still wins about 7 percent of the time. You add those wins to the times he wins gammons when he doesn't get hit (and sometimes he wins a gammon even when he does get hit), he simply loses less money by taking.

Snowie, and the "odds" don't give a hoot about "money management." In real life, I take this cube at 4 or 8 every time. If I am looking at a 16 cube, I try to settle, and if he won't settle, I probably drop because even though the odds say take, there is a money-management factor that has nothing to do with backgammon odds. But it's important to know what is right so you can make intelligent decisions, intelligent settlements, and intelligent money-management decisions.

[giannisp]

I am very happy that you commented on the thing of money management.Your advice is priceless , for sure. I was wondering if you could exlain more about the thing you said, about "agreeing " with your oponnent , when you are given the cube. What did you mean?