A great checkrer play lesson

[Simborg]

I am black, and I know I will win the match if I can just get my three checkers home, and I roll a great number...6-6. Now, the question is, do I leave white a 9, 10, 0r 11 shot?

I know there are only 2/36 rolls of 11. I know that there are only 3/36 rolls of 10, and I know that 5/36 rolls hit the 9. So clearly, leaving the 11 gives me the lowest chance of getting hit on the next roll.

However, what happens after the next roll? If he doesn't hit me, I know that the closer I am to my inner board, the more likely I am to bring my checker home to safety and not have to leave a shot next time. And of course, I have to look at things like duplication...what hits me and covers his blot, etc. etc.

So, what's your play?








The right play is to leave the 9 shot. Yes, you increase the odds of getting hit on the first roll, but there are a lot more rolls that get you home safely, and that is a major consideration. Leaving the 11 makes if very tough to get home safely. Some think leaving 10 is a nice compromise, but the problem with that is you leave your opponent a "super-joker" in that double 5 not only hits but covers his blot on the 1 point.