is it really skill?

[giannisp]

I made that post cause i need to tell you a story.

I am not such an experienced bg player. In my places, we play 3 games , 'fevga', 'plakoto' and 'portes' -> which is almost as your backgammon. If you ask someone which game requires you to be more lucky , all people ( especially experienced) will answer 'portes' -> backgammnon. I used to agree with them.

Then i discovered bg on Internet. Obviously I was losing repeatedly at start , not because of my bad checker play, but from cube handling as i had never seen it before. I studied , i read articles and sth changed. I read that wonderful articles saying 'It's skill,luck not matters,keep making right moves etc'. I also had gnubg to test my plays. Indeed I was making a lot of error moves and I somehow got ( a little) better. But money playing , in Internet was not a success. Why? Maybe playing with better players, maybe the fee you pay online , maybe, maybe , maybe...

But MAINLY it's becuase the nature of this game. The more you study it, the more illusions you have that if you keep making the right moves you'll be the winner . This a a huge LIE. I have only one evidence for this . Have you ever won a player that was luckier than you in a game? Have you ever lost a game that you were luckier? My both answers : NO.

Gnubg usually ranks me expert player ( sometimes advanced , and rarely world class, but i know i'm not). With this ranking , gnubg has never won me , never , when i had about +5 luck rate. NEVER. Even If i made 2 or 3 bad moves, this percrntage of luck , always made me a winner. And vice versa. Even -5 lack factor , and my win chances disappeared.

My point is simple. Of course there are bad moves and right moves. Of course the best thing you can do is study,study , study and get better, But at the end , even you are a Ballard, a kazaros , a simborg , you will ALWAYS LOSE against someone that is just decent player and is a little luckier in that game than you. Distance between a top player and a decent one is with no doubt about 5-10 years experience or more. Distance between luck is minimal. But in the counts more.

Maybe that old people playing this game in my country , were true. The luckier game of the three ( sorry , that you don't know the other games, but believe me they are wonderful) is backgammon.

[yoel_bgorg]

Hi

No one will argue about the importance of luck factor in one game. What these articles are saying is that in the long run, skills are more important.

Luck VS. Skill

[giannisp]

My point is that just a decent player with about 50-50 luck will have about 50-50 wins against other ( even top) players. This is my opinion and to support this I said that 95% of the time at games between decent players and above, the luckier wins. At this level skill is important , but the difference it makes is really really small. Skill is a big factor if you are playing at lower levels. From a level and above I dont think it makes such a difference!!

[puzzle_t0rico]

Hi
I agree that lucks counts but better players make the luck to smile them more often and we could wonder why. Why after playing 50 years you are luckier that after 50 days. WHY? Does luck like the long time players and hates the new ones? I don't think so.
Maybe a good player is not luckier but in fact, a lucky person becomes a good player. what is the cause and what the effect?
Besides, what do you consider luck? Is it luck when you put your men in a good disposition to block your opponent and force him to leave a blot and hit it? Maybe you had 3 or 4 men to hit that single blot. That makes 27 or 32 out of 36 and for me that it is not luck but probabilities. Is it luck if you arrive to block all the 6's for your opponent and makes his 6-6 useless?
I am not sure that the top players are luckier than me but they build their luck thanks to their skill. They find how to improve the probabilities of winning.
Of course, even a beginner will win once in a while a top player in a 1-pt match, even in a 3pt. But you will never see a beginner win any top tourney.
If luck counts this much in reality, then the equity tables are just scam and we should not use or learn them. It is useless.
_________________
If the brain were simple enough to be understood, we would be too stupid to understand it.

[giannisp]

You missed the meaning of my point. I agree with you, totally. Ask yourself , how many times did you win having the worst luck? Rarely?
How many times did you lose , having better rolls? Rarely too? I suppose u r an average player , with average rolls. If you answer 'Rarely' to the above questions , you should be able to connect the facts good rolls=win games . A repeat myself, never lost a game against gnubg ,me having better rolls than the gnu .

[puzzle_t0rico]

Hi
No, I do not miss your point but I really think that skill is the most important part of the game.
You can have excellent dice but waht happens if you do not use them as it should?
What it you hit when you shouldn't or forget to cover the important point in the outer board or... many other situations?
There, it is skill what moves the match to victory.
I have played with other people and I won the match because they did not move their men as they should and, even better, I turned the die knowing that it was a gammon but also knowing that they wanted to get in the score and they would accept. They did and I won 4 pts and the match
That it is pure luck: the luck to play with people that plays worse than oneself
_________________
If the brain were simple enough to be understood, we would be too stupid to understand it.

[giannisp]

Oh, please read carefully what the other says, before writing down your answer!! You describe a situation that you play against a much weaker opponent that makes HUGE mistakes. It is not what I've said. I said what I said assuming that the worst player of the 2 , is not a beginner , but a decent , fairly good player. That kind of players don't have such bad moves as you described, but just small mistakes. This kind of a player will ( nearly) never lose a game when his rolls are better (even playing with a top player) .

[McAlonso]

Play vs a World-Class player (or a bot) and you'll se he's "lucky" (according to GNU) more times than you. Ever asked why?

[puzzle_t0rico]

Because he makes his position statistically more inclined to get jokers.
He obtains jokers because he makes it possible. When the moves avoid them from happening, obviously, we feel less lucky.
_________________
If the brain were simple enough to be understood, we would be too stupid to understand it.