Simborg
Joined: 17 Aug 2006 Posts: 408 Location: Chicago
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Post subject: This one fooled some of the top players in the world |
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In the position below, it is a money game, black is on roll and has to play a 4-3. There are only two possible plays that make sense....make your 5-prime or make your opponen'ts 5 point. Which one do you think is the better play? Scroll down for the answer.
As you can see from the Snowie evaluation (rolled out) below, the best play is to make your opponent's 5 point. If you do this and he doesn't hit you on the next roll, you will probably make your 5 prime anyway and be in a super strong position. There are only 8 numbers that hit, so that means that 28 of the 36 rolls he does not hit you.
Now, if you do make the 5 prime, he is in a stronger position to attack you. He still has 4 numbers that come out and hit your blot in your outfiled, but in addition to that, he has many numbers that either point on you on his 5 point or hit you loose on that 5 point. If he hits you loose and you don't roll a 5, he has significantly strengthened his position.
Don't feel bad if you made the wrong choice...so did several of the best players in the world that I showed this to.
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