A Just-the-Opposite situation

[Simborg]

In the situation below, it is a match to 9, black leads 4-0. White holds a 2-cube and is on roll. What is the proper cube action? Should white double? Should black take if doubled?







The answer is, White should double, and Black should take. And the main reason White should double is that if he doesn't double and doesn't hit, he will get gammoned much of the time (about 51% of the time) and he will lose almost all the time, and being down 6-0 or 8-0 is pretty dismal. If he doesn't double and he hits, he will only win 2 points and still be trailing in the match 4-2.

But if he doubles and hits, he would win most of the games and tie the match. And if he misses, since he gets gammoned a lot and loses 4 points anyway, it doesn't cost him that much to get gammoned and lose the match.

Now, here is what I find very interesting. If you were to move the two checkers that white has in the outfield to his inner board, then it is not a double. And the reason is that his gammons, if he doesn't hit, are only about 18%, so if he loses and the score goes to 6-0 he still has a fighting chance to win the match. Because he's less desperate, the more likely he is to get gammoned, the more he should cube! Just the opposite of a money game.