A simple Choice

[Simborg]

It's a money game. White holds a 2 cube. You are black and roll a 6-2. You have two choices, hit or take off another checker. Which play is right?





As you can see below, the right play, by far, is to hit. Here is what is good about hitting. If he misses, he is out of your hair for the rest of the game. He will not get another shot, unless he misses with 2-2 and is on the bar, and even then he doesn't get another shot if you roll a 1. If you don't get hit, you are almost certain to win a gammon anyway, so you don't need to take off another checker. Another reason you don't need to take off another checker is that after you take off the 6, you are left with 6 checkers. If you had one more checker on your 2 point, and would be left with 7 checkers, then you have a real decision to make. Taking off another checker to get down to 6 puts you 3 rolls away from finishing the game, but being left with 7 means that it will take you 4 rolls (unless you roll doubles). So you would have to decide if you are still likely to get a gammon in 4 rolls, and if you are, you hit, and if not, you take the chance of a repeating shot and take off another checker.