Joined: 17 Aug 2006
| Post subject: Match Equity Table-5 point Match or Less
|1 2 3 4 5
1 50 70 75 81 85
2 30 50 60 68 75
3 25 40 50 59 66
4 15 32 41 50 58
5 19 25 34 42 50
By Phil Simborg
If you want to be a top tournament player, you will have to memorize and use the above table. All top tournament players use this table.
Let's say you are playing a match to 5 and you are losing 2-1. That means that you are 4 away from winning the match, and your opponent is 3 away from winning the match.
Using the table above, that means that, assuming you and your opponent are equally skilled, he will win the match 60 percent of the time and you will win 40 percent of the time.
It is critical to know this. Why? Let's pretend your opponent doubles you. You now know that if you drop, you would be losing 3-1, so your opponent would be 2 away and you would be 4 away. So if you drop, you will still win the match 32 percent of the time. But what if you take and you lose? Then the score would be 4-1, so you would be 4 away and he would be 1 away, and your win percentage now would be 15 percent.
But what if you take the cube an win? Then you would be winning 3-2, so you would be 2 away and he would be 3 away, and your win percentage goes to 60 percent.
So if you drop, you go from 40 percent to 32 percent....you lose 8 percent. So you are risking 8 percent to gain 20 percent if you win, or lose 35 percent if you lose.
Then you have to estimate your odds of winning and losing the game, and you have to factor in your odds of getting gammoned or backgammoned, and your odds of winning a gammon or backgammon. THEN you can make a truly intelligent decision of whether to take or drop!
And that is how top players decide whether to take, drop, or give a cube in a match.
The above table can be used for even longer matches, but comes into play only after both players are within 5 points of winning. When you are both farther away, the "take point" for most matches is pretty close to 25 percent (just like money games), and that is what is generally applied.
Any questions/suggestions? Email Phil at firstname.lastname@example.org