My latest blunder

Simborg · Joined: 17 Aug 2006 Posts: 408 Location: Chicago

Money game, black to play 5-1

I was very surprised to see that it was wrong to make my 3 point on this play. Snowie makes that the second best play, with coming out and lifting the blot number one. I guess the principle is that if you are ahead in the race, you should trend to try to race. This one really fooled me.

LuvChild · Joined: 28 Jun 2007 Posts: 30 Location: Philadelphia, PA

For once I got one right before looking at the output! Smile

While the words "when ahead in a race... race" are ones I've come to live by (except when in the car) don't know that the Snowie output is looking solely, or even primarialy, at that when it gave you the 'best moves' list. While you increase your winning percentages by +/- 5% with the best move the fact that you reduce the number of gammon losses by that (or more) I think is just as significant. White has a strong inner board, with plenty of builders, that is bound to get stronger on the next roll (while quite possibly putting you on the bar for a while).

Yes, you win here by keeping it a race, but up only 8 pips the best way to stay ahead in this race is to stay off the bar. Here that means taking away a lot of white's hitting options.

Simborg · Joined: 17 Aug 2006 Posts: 408 Location: Chicago

Here is an analysis of this play from Perry Gartner, one of the top players in the world:

This is a game plan error for you. Escaping is your top game plan priority. You are allowing 33 good numbers for your opponent with 16 pointing on you instead of just being hit loose with 10 and the one the hits and makes the 4 is bad anyway. So it is 11 bad numbers coming up instead of the 16 pointers and the other 17 that safety whites blot on his 24, or hit loose. Stay back for the most common variations that come up, and then your performance must really be terrific. You need to come in and out on a 4 point board with a broken prime,, or hit a blot on the 23 first and the roll a number that escapes before being attached again.
When else are you planning your escape? You are ahead in the race and you rather not come out so you can improve your board against an anchor on your 5 point? If no anchor a better case could be made for forming a prime, but even here if white didn't have an anchor, and you weren't ahead in the race it would be likely right to attempt an escape first as he has just too many checkers in the zone, and then work on your position to contain the checker that is back.