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BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY
Problem #34 solution
  		Match to 11
Blue 8, White 10

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     Blue to play 22

Candidate plays:

  1. 13/9(2)
  2. 13/11(3) 8/6
  3. 13/11(2) 8/6(2)
  4. 8/2 8/6
  5. 8/4(2)

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RK:
We end this problem set with an interesting play that has several options.

At first glance, it might seem clear to make the 4 point. After all, it's the next most desirable point. It can serve as a landing point for outfield checkers, and it plays efficiently, still leaving a useful spare on the 8 point. While Blue might like to clear the midpoint, she can't move all five checkers, so why not make the 4 point?

On further analysis, consider Blue's priorities. She's ahead in the race, so she can probably win if she can avoid getting hit. At the match score, she'd love to win a gammon, but it's not very likely. White's board is strong, and figures to get stronger, and Blue's blot on her 2 point is a liability. So even with the 4 point, Blue isn't planning to do any voluntary attacking, except with a rare pick and pass number like 5-1. Therefore, Blue's main priority is simply to bear in safely.

(Another play that might be tempting is to cover the blot now with 8/2 8/6, removing the risk of having it hit later. But even after covering, Blue still isn't going to have many attractive attacking sequences. She'll have done nothing to help clear her outfield points, and won't even have the useful landing point that the 4 point would provide.)

The best strategy in such situations is to clear points from the rear. Even though Blue can't clear the midpoint fully, it does help to move 2 (or 3) checkers off it. This creates a new outfield landing point, and allows Blue to take advantage of some doubles later. There's no guarantee that Blue won't be forced to leave a shot eventually, but White may eventually have to give up some of his defensive position or else break his board, so the risk of future shots may diminish.

After playing 13/11(2), Blue might as well keep them going to make the 9 point. This point is easier to clear later than the 11 point and provides a better landing point for builders, as well as blocking the checker on the 3 point, which could be useful in some situations. 

Pip counts:          Blue   129                     White  144

                     Blue                           White              
Candidate Plays      Equity   Win    G/BG    BG     Win    G/BG    BG  
13/9(2)              +0.425   68.6%   9.0%   0.1%   31.4%   3.8%   0.0%
13/11(3) 8/6         +0.398   68.2%   6.5%   0.1%   31.8%   3.0%   0.0%
13/11(2) 8/6(2)      +0.376   67.2%   6.6%   0.1%   32.8%   3.5%   0.0%
8/4(2)               +0.366   66.8%   6.9%   0.1%   33.2%   3.9%   0.0%
8/2 8/6              +0.309   64.3%   7.2%   0.1%   35.7%   4.9%   0.1%




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