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BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY
Problem #28 solution
  		Match to 11
Blue 3, White 8

0123456bar789101112

0123456bar789101112
     Blue to play 42

Candidate plays:

  1. Bar/23 11/7
  2. Bar/23 7/3*

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RK:
Blue enters and has a simple choice: either cover the bar point, or hit loose on the 3 point.

Playing 11/7 is a natural play that locks up the four-point prime and a solid advantage. The race is close, but Blue now has a better blockade, and one checker back vs. two. White's blot on his ace point makes it more difficult to attack without getting hit back, and even if an attack is successful, he still needs to leap the prime.

Hitting loose is a more aggressive play which attempts to prevent White from consolidating, taking advantage of the fact that White has 4 blots around the board. It is more likely to result in a gammon (for both sides). Therefore, it's more attractive at this match score than it normally would be, because gammons help Blue relatively more than White. However, it's still not enough to overcome the drawbacks: Blue fails to make her own bar point, and risks getting hit back and blowing her positional advantage. 

Pip counts:          Blue   136                     White  134

                     Blue                           White              
Candidate Plays      Equity   Win    G/BG    BG     Win    G/BG    BG  
Bar/23 11/7          +0.286   62.5%  15.1%   0.5%   37.5%  11.8%   0.2%
Bar/23 7/3*          +0.181   57.2%  18.6%   0.8%   42.8%  15.4%   0.4%




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