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BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY Problem #23 solution		Match to 11 Blue 1, White 8
		Blue to play 22 Candidate plays: Bar/21 11/7* Bar/21 6/4(2) Bar/23 13/9 11/9 Bar/23 13/11 6/4(2) Bar/23 8/4 6/4

RK:
Blue enters with the first 2, then has three more 2s to play. It looks like the choices are:

• Hit on the bar point with two, then make the 21 point anchor.
• Make the 4 point with two, then make the 21 point or 11 point.

(Making the 9 point is legal, but this has to be clearly inferior to making both the 4 point and another point).

Making the home board point has long-term advantages, since Blue will have this point for the rest of the game, and that will prove useful in any blot-hitting contest. On the other hand, hitting now gains a tempo, forcing White to use part of his roll to enter.

In this position, hitting isn't as great as it might otherwise be, for the following reasons:

• White doesn't have any spare builders, so his threat of making new points isn't great anyway.
• Blue doesn't gain much racing ground by hitting, but risks getting hit back with 14 numbers and losing 18 pips.
• White has plenty of room to enter on Blue's board. Blue is then under pressure to cover the bar point or risk getting more checkers sent back.

If Blue makes the 4 point, on the other hand, White is under pressure. If he anchors with a 4, he'll have to expose another blot somewhere. If he doesn't anchor, his back checker(s) will be subject to attack. So it looks like the long-term value of the 4 point should outweigh the advantages from hitting.

After making the point, should Blue anchor or cover the 11 point? The anchor has solid long-term value and guards against the immediate pointing numbers of 44, 42, 22 (and 11). The 11 point has positional value as a blocking point or a pair of builders, while guarding against White hitting with 4s (although 4s are also good for anchoring). Both plays accomplish something, and it's hard to see a clear difference; the rollouts give a tiny edge to the 11 point.

---

Pip counts:          Blue   174                     White  159

                     Blue                           White              
Candidate Plays      Equity   Win    G/BG    BG     Win    G/BG    BG  
Bar/23 13/11 6/4(2)  +0.078   51.8%  14.6%   0.4%   48.2%  10.4%   0.4%
Bar/21 6/4(2)        +0.064   50.6%  14.0%   0.3%   49.4%   9.0%   0.3%
Bar/21 11/7*         -0.002   48.9%  12.0%   0.3%   51.1%  10.0%   0.3%
Bar/23 8/4 6/4       -0.007   48.5%  14.0%   0.3%   51.5%  11.6%   0.5%
Bar/23 13/9 11/9     -0.040   47.9%  12.5%   0.3%   52.1%  12.1%   0.4%

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