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BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY
Problem #18 solution
  		Match to 11
Blue 6, White 1

0123456bar789101112

0123456bar789101112
     Blue to play 54

Candidate plays:

  1. 18/13 18/14
  2. 13/8 13/9
  3. 13/8 6/2*
  4. 7/2* 6/2
  5. 6/1* 13/9

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RK:
Blue has to leave a blot somewhere after this roll. It's not too dangerous to get hit, given White's board, but it's not without risk. And a big consideration for Blue is what kind of position he wants if not hit.

An obvious choice is to point on the 2 point, leaving no direct returns. Certainly, this must be better than making the 3 point and leaving a double direct shot. Still, it does leave 12 return shots from the bar and a disjointed position. It's not clear that attacking is worth giving up White's bar point, or that an all-out blitz is likely to succeed here.

Blue can play more positionally by bringing down two from the midpoint with 13/8 13/9. But this gives White 11 indirect shots at the checker on the 9 point, which let White both hit and escape, and also 1s to hit on the midpoint. And if missed, Blue can't both make a new point and safety the checker on the midpoint next time.

How about just trying to break contact with 18/13 18/14? This actually has a lot going for it. White only has 11 numbers to hit (and only 5 that hit and cover the blot on the 2 point). If hit, Blue is not in serious danger yet, and White still has to get her two back checkers past Blue's three-prime. If missed, Blue is in excellent shape, with a reasonable racing lead and all his checkers in play against the back checkers.

Often, it's useful to keep the security of the opponent's bar point until you've had a chance to shore up your own front position--but after this roll, Blue's prime doesn't figure to get significantly better. It looks like the best time to break anchor is now, when White's board is weak and Blue can withstand a hit. 

Pip counts:          Blue   143                     White  152

                     Blue                           White              
Candidate Plays      Equity   Win    G/BG    BG     Win    G/BG    BG  
18/13 18/14          +0.389   66.7%  11.9%   0.3%   33.3%   6.6%   0.1%
7/2* 6/2             +0.281   59.8%  15.8%   0.4%   40.2%   7.7%   0.1%
13/8 13/9            +0.250   58.8%  15.9%   0.4%   41.2%   8.7%   0.2%
6/1* 13/9            +0.238   59.3%  13.3%   0.3%   40.7%   8.3%   0.1%
13/8 6/2*            +0.217   58.3%  13.3%   0.3%   41.7%   8.4%   0.1%




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