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BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY
Problem #17 solution
  		Match to 11
Blue 2, White 1

0123456bar789101112

0123456bar789101112
     Blue to play 44

Candidate plays:

  1. 24/16 9/1*
  2. 24/16 6/2(2)*
  3. 24/16 5/1(2)*
  4. 24/20 13/1*
  5. 24/20 9/1* 9/5
  6. 24/20 9/5 6/2(2)*
  7. 13/1* 9/5
  8. 13/5 6/2(2)*
  9. 9/1(2)*
  10. 9/1* 6/2(2)*
  11. 6/2(2)* 5/1(2)*

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RK:
Another blitz problem. Once again, Blue can't cover the 4 point. Next priority: make a new point. There's only one new point that Blue can make: the 1 point with 9/1(2)*. That looks pretty good, putting two White checkers on the bar and creating a 4 1/2 point board. White does have a chance to anchor on the 2 point, but you can't have everything.

Or can you? Blue could go all out to try to deny White an anchor by switching points twice with 6/2(2)* 5/1(2)*, then plan to keep attacking as long as possible. Could this be better? Unlikely. White has three numbers (44, 55, 66) to anchor immediately, plus more chances on future rolls. She also has 4s to hit and slow down Blue's attack. If Blue fails to achieve a closeout, White ends up with a high anchor, and has chances to trap Blue's back checkers, with a holding game in reserve. By keeping his 6 and 5 points, Blue insures a superior position in most cases. 

Pip counts:          Blue   137                     White  173

                     Blue                           White              
Candidate Plays      Equity   Win    G/BG    BG     Win    G/BG    BG  
9/1(2)*              +0.916   74.3%  45.7%   2.2%   25.7%   4.9%   0.1%
6/2(2)* 5/1(2)*      +0.831   71.3%  44.9%   1.8%   28.7%   6.2%   0.2%
9/1* 6/2(2)*         +0.749   69.3%  41.7%   2.0%   30.7%   7.0%   0.3%
24/20 9/1* 9/5       +0.724   70.3%  36.4%   1.8%   29.7%   6.1%   0.2%
24/16 6/2(2)*        +0.721   70.3%  35.7%   1.9%   29.7%   5.9%   0.2%
13/5 6/2(2)*         +0.702   68.7%  37.3%   2.0%   31.3%   6.3%   0.2%
24/16 9/1*           +0.701   69.9%  35.6%   1.7%   30.1%   6.8%   0.3%
13/1* 9/5            +0.701   68.8%  38.2%   2.0%   31.2%   7.4%   0.3%
24/20 13/1*          +0.696   69.6%  35.3%   1.7%   30.4%   6.3%   0.2%
24/20 9/5 6/2(2)*    +0.689   68.7%  36.3%   1.8%   31.3%   6.4%   0.2%
24/16 5/1(2)*        +0.687   69.0%  35.8%   1.4%   31.0%   6.3%   0.2%




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