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BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY Problem #16 solution		Match to 11 Blue 2, White 1
		Blue to play 22 Candidate plays: 24/22 13/9 4/2* 24/22 13/11(2) 4/2* 23/21 13/9 4/2* 23/21 13/11(2) 4/2* 23/21 4/2* 3/1(2)* 13/7 4/2* 13/9 13/11 4/2* 13/9 7/5 4/2* 13/11(2) 7/5 4/2* 13/11 4/2* 3/1(2)* 7/5 4/2* 3/1(2)*

RK:
Blue is blitzing here. His priorities:

• Make home board points.
• Hit White to prevent her from anchoring (and also to gain tempo).
• Bring more ammunition to bear on the key home board points.

Blue would love to cover the 4 point but can't do it with this number. This makes hitting with 4/2* the most attractive option. Since he has to leave a shot (short of the weak 6/4(2)), having two opposing checkers on the bar is a lot better than one.

Then isn't three up better than two? Blue could put another checker up with 3/1*(2), on the theory that all home board points are equally good in a blitz. That's almost true, but if the blitz fails, Blue will have to fall back on a positional game, and will prefer the 3 point to the ace point. By settling for two on the bar (at least for now), Blue can bring checkers from the midpoint closer to the action with 13/11 13/9.

The rollouts favor the point-switching plays by a tiny margin (with either 13/11 or 7/5). Advancing the rear checkers is a lower priority--they're fine where they are and should have no trouble escaping once the issue is decided in Blue's home board.

---

Pip counts:          Blue   145                     White  173

                     Blue                           White              
Candidate Plays      Equity   Win    G/BG    BG     Win    G/BG    BG  
13/11 4/2* 3/1(2)*   +0.716   68.9%  38.7%   1.9%   31.1%   6.7%   0.2%
7/5 4/2* 3/1(2)*     +0.716   68.7%  39.1%   1.9%   31.3%   6.7%   0.2%
13/9 13/11 4/2*      +0.706   70.7%  33.8%   1.9%   29.3%   6.3%   0.2%
23/21 13/9 4/2*      +0.690   70.5%  32.4%   1.8%   29.5%   6.1%   0.2%
13/9 7/5 4/2*        +0.684   69.5%  34.4%   2.0%   30.5%   6.7%   0.2%
24/22 13/9 4/2*      +0.684   70.5%  31.9%   1.7%   29.5%   6.0%   0.2%
23/21 13/11(2) 4/2*  +0.681   70.4%  32.0%   1.7%   29.6%   6.1%   0.2%
23/21 4/2* 3/1(2)*   +0.678   68.2%  36.5%   1.7%   31.8%   6.6%   0.2%
13/7 4/2*            +0.670   69.9%  32.0%   1.7%   30.1%   6.3%   0.2%
24/22 13/11(2) 4/2*  +0.670   70.1%  31.5%   1.7%   29.9%   6.2%   0.2%
13/11(2) 7/5 4/2*    +0.666   69.1%  33.6%   1.9%   30.9%   6.8%   0.2%

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