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BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY Problem #15 solution		Match to 11 Blue 2, White 1
		Blue to play 21 Candidate plays: 24/21 24/22 24/23 24/22 6/5 13/11 24/23 13/10 13/11 6/5 6/4* 24/23 6/4* 5/4 6/4*/3

RK:
Should Blue hit with 6/4* or make a non-hitting play? If he decides to hit, should he leave the 4 point slotted or lift the blot?

Hitting is right for all the usual reasons:

• Blue has a superior board while White has developed nothing.
• White has no anchor but has 20 numbers to cover the 21 point. By hitting, Blue reduces the numbers that make the anchor immediately to four (43 and 42).
• The hit slows White down and gives Blue time to bring down more ammunition from the midpoint to continue the attack.

After hitting, should Blue lift? A more difficult decision. Blue is a little short of ammo, and by hitting and lifting, his spare checker ends up on the 3 point, not exactly where he wants it. The alternative play fights more directly for the 4 point, as well as diversifying the back checkers. The big cost, of course, is that it leaves 16 return shots, which cost Blue both racing equity and momentum for the attack. Avoiding the shots seems best here, particularly since Blue doesn't have a lot of covers for the blot on the 4 point even if it's missed.

---

Pip counts:          Blue   148                     White  169

                     Blue                           White              
Candidate Plays      Equity   Win    G/BG    BG     Win    G/BG    BG  
6/4*/3               +0.491   65.7%  24.1%   1.1%   34.3%   7.3%   0.2%
6/4* 24/23           +0.471   65.0%  23.9%   1.2%   35.0%   7.7%   0.3%
13/11 24/23          +0.410   64.0%  20.2%   0.8%   36.0%   7.7%   0.2%
24/21                +0.403   64.3%  18.4%   0.7%   35.7%   7.3%   0.2%
24/22 6/5            +0.398   63.5%  19.3%   0.7%   36.5%   7.9%   0.2%
13/11 6/5            +0.396   63.2%  20.5%   0.8%   36.8%   8.0%   0.2%
6/4* 5/4             +0.396   62.5%  22.0%   1.1%   37.5%   8.3%   0.3%
24/22 24/23          +0.376   63.5%  17.9%   0.7%   36.5%   7.7%   0.2%
13/10                +0.376   62.5%  20.1%   0.8%   37.5%   8.1%   0.2%

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