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BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY
Problem #13 solution
  		Match to 11
Blue 2, White 1

0123456bar789101112

0123456bar789101112
     Blue to play 11

Candidate plays:

  1. Bar/24(2)* 24/23(2)
  2. Bar/24* Bar/22
  3. Bar/24* Bar/23 6/5
  4. Bar/24(2)* 8/7(2)
  5. Bar/24(2)* 3/2(2)*

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RK:
Blue rolled a great number from the bar, entering both checkers and hitting, and has to decide how to use the other two 1s.

Splitting the back checkers while the opponent is on the bar is always something to consider, since it gives more flexibility for anchoring and escaping. However, in this situation Blue has White on the ropes, so he should concentrate all his resources on offense. Later on, there shouldn't be much trouble escaping the back checkers.

Blue could shift from the 8 point to the bar point, creating a slightly better blockade against White's back checkers. However, Blue would still have a long way to go before being able to make a five-prime, let alone a full prime. His best bet is to just blitz here. He's got a 3-point board, and White has no board, plus a blot on the 1 point. Putting another checker on the bar with 3/2(2)* stops White in her tracks and gives Blue time to bring more ammunition from the midpoint to keep up the attack. This leads to more gammons and no fewer total wins than a more positional strategy. In many variations, Blue can win with the cube on his next turn. Worst case, if White anchors, Blue has gained a racing lead and just tries to get home safely. 

Pip counts:          Blue   152                     White  154

                     Blue                           White              
Candidate Plays      Equity   Win    G/BG    BG     Win    G/BG    BG  
Bar/24(2)* 3/2(2)*   +0.617   67.7%  31.3%   1.8%   32.3%   6.6%   0.2%
Bar/24(2)* 8/7(2)    +0.557   67.8%  25.4%   1.2%   32.2%   6.4%   0.2%
Bar/24* Bar/22       +0.558   67.6%  25.8%   1.2%   32.4%   6.2%   0.1%
Bar/24 Bar/23 6/5    +0.542   66.9%  26.0%   1.2%   33.1%   6.6%   0.2%
Bar/24(2)* 24/23(2)  +0.526   66.4%  25.5%   1.2%   33.6%   6.7%   0.2%




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