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BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY
Problem #12 solution
  		Match to 11
Blue 1, White 2

0123456bar789101112

0123456bar789101112
     Blue to play 52

Candidate plays:

  1. 23/16
  2. 23/18 13/11
  3. 23/18 8/6
  4. 13/6
  5. 13/8 23/21
  6. 13/8 13/11
  7. 8/6/1*
  8. 8/3* 23/21
  9. 8/3*/1*
  10. 6/1* 23/21
  11. 6/1* 13/11

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RK:
Blue hasn't been able to get anything going. She was hoping to make a point, either offensively or defensively, but rolled this weak 52.

Her options aren't great: she can either attack one or both of White's blots, or she can make a more passive play. Since White's board is stronger than Blue's, Blue would not normally want to expose new blots. However, none of the passive plays (such as 13/8 23/21 or 23/16) is really safe. They all afford White good attacking chances. Therefore, Blue's safest option here is actually to attack.

The big advantage of hitting twice with 8/3*/1* is that it keeps White from doing anything offensively (except with doubles). This gives Blue more time to make a desperately-needed anchor. If White enters with a 1, the additional checker sent back actually increases Blue's chances of anchoring. If the checker isn't hit, Blue may be able to cover it and start building a board. While the 1 point isn't her most desired home-board point, Blue will be happy for anything at this point.

A more positionally "pure" variation is to hit with 8/3* and advance 23/21. If missed, Blue would rather make the 3 point than the 1 point; and slotting the 21 point may increase the chances of making it. However, these factors don't offset the extra value of having two checkers on the bar instead of one, as well as minimizing return shots. 

Pip counts:          Blue   161                     White  148

                     Blue                           White              
Candidate Plays      Equity   Win    G/BG    BG     Win    G/BG    BG  
8/3*/1*              -0.435   35.1%   7.9%   0.2%   64.9%  21.1%   0.8%
13/8 23/21           -0.469   35.2%   7.1%   0.2%   64.8%  23.8%   0.7%
23/16                -0.452   36.1%   6.8%   0.2%   63.9%  23.8%   0.6%
13/6                 -0.473   34.4%   7.1%   0.2%   65.6%  22.7%   0.7%
8/3* 23/21           -0.483   34.4%   7.1%   0.2%   65.6%  23.3%   1.1%
6/1* 23/21           -0.499   33.5%   6.6%   0.1%   66.5%  22.9%   0.8%
13/8 13/11           -0.515   33.3%   7.0%   0.2%   66.7%  24.3%   1.0%
23/18 8/6            -0.518   33.8%   6.6%   0.2%   66.2%  25.4%   0.8%
8/6/1*               -0.518   32.5%   6.8%   0.1%   67.2%  22.9%   0.9%
6/1* 13/11           -0.518   33.2%   7.0%   0.2%   66.8%  24.3%   1.1%
23/18 13/11          -0.520   34.3%   6.8%   0.2%   65.7%  26.5%   1.0%




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