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BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY Problem #6 solution		Match to 11 Blue 0, White 1
		Blue to play 52 Candidate plays: 16/11 13/11 16/11 8/6 8/3* 16/14 8/3* 8/6 8/3*/1

RK:
The question with this number (and with several other numbers Blue could have rolled) is: Is it worth it to hit loose on the 3 point, or is it better to play as safely as possible?

The advantages of hitting are:

• It puts a second checker in the air, slowing White down considerably and adding to Blue's gammon chances.
• If White fails to hit back, Blue is a big favorite to cover the 3 point, making it a lot easier to bear in and off safely.

The downside, of course, is that White has 11 numbers to hit back immediately. White's board is strong (though not enough to claim victory immediately after hitting), and Blue's blockade isn't strong enough to prevent White from easily circulating his back checkers.

It turns out that playing safe is a bit better in this position. One important key is the timing. Notice that if White comes in and makes the 3 point immediately, he's forced to play a checker off his midpoint, or start weakening his board. It looks like he may not have the time to maintain both anchors and preserve his home board until he gets a shot. Therefore, it's less important for Blue to try to knock White off the 3 point. If, for example, White's checker on his 6 point were back on the midpoint, or further, then White's timing would be better (and his offense less dangerous), and hitting loose would become better.

Also, note that at a match score in which gammons were important to Blue but not to White (like 2-away 1-away Crawford), hitting loose would be advantageous.

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Pip counts:          Blue   112                     White  157

                     Blue                           White              
Candidate Plays      Equity   Win    G/BG    BG     Win    G/BG    BG  
16/11 8/6            +0.496   66.8%  20.6%   0.6%   33.2%   5.0%   0.1%
16/11 13/11          +0.479   67.0%  18.7%   0.5%   33.0%   5.1%   0.1%
8/3* 16/14           +0.441   63.8%  25.0%   0.8%   36.2%   9.0%   0.3%
8/3*/1               +0.358   61.0%  23.7%   0.7%   39.0%  10.3%   0.3%
8/3* 8/6             +0.352   60.2%  25.1%   0.8%   39.8%  10.7%   0.4%

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