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BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY
Problem #2 solution
Match to 11
Blue 0, White 0
Blue to play 64 Candidate plays:
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RK:
Blue is running out of moves; in fact, he has to break a point and expose at least one blot with this 64.Since he's ahead in the race, could it be time to break anchor with 18/8? This only leaves one blot and gives Blue some extra timing. Such a play could be right if White's board were a lot weaker, but here it's too strong. White would have excellent chances to attack the remaining blot AND make a prime. Even if Blue gets away with the play, White still has a solid holding game, so the upside isn't great enough. Therefore, Blue should break either the 8 point or the midpoint.
One seeming advantage of breaking the 8 point is that Blue gets the 2 point in return. However, that isn't really worth much here. If White rolls a 4, he'll be happy to hit, and if not, he just sits on his anchor, moves his spare checkers, and awaits future shots. Blue then has the problem of safetying the blot, while trying to bring his other checkers home without benefit of the 8-point as a landing and blocking point.
Breaking the midpoint with 13/3 is better, despite the awkward stack on the 3 point. The blot left on the midpoint isn't in much danger, since most numbers that hit leave White vulnerable in turn. And if not hit, that checker represents a roll or two of timing before Blue has to worry about breaking another point.
Pip counts: Blue 118 White 134 Blue White Candidate Plays Equity Win G/BG BG Win G/BG BG 13/3 -0.064 49.1% 6.8% 0.1% 50.9% 11.3% 0.2% 8/2 6/2 -0.140 46.1% 8.4% 0.2% 53.9% 14.4% 0.4% 13/7 13/9 -0.145 45.6% 7.0% 0.1% 54.4% 12.4% 0.3% 18/8 -0.179 44.1% 6.8% 0.2% 55.9% 12.8% 0.3%
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