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BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY
Problem #1 solution
  		Match to 11
Blue 0, White 0

0123456bar789101112

0123456bar789101112
     Blue to play 54

Candidate plays:

  1. 24/15
  2. 13/8 24/20
  3. 11/6 24/20
  4. 11/6 10/6
  5. 10/5 24/20
  6. 10/5 8/4
  7. 10/5 6/2

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RK:
Not a good roll for Blue; almost any other number makes a new point. Blue has a lot of unappealing choices.

An obvious play is to clean up both blots with 10/6 11/6. This avoids being hit for the moment--but it leaves Blue with nothing, offensively or defensively. White already has a positional edge, holding Blue's bar point, and has builders to make new offensive points. So Blue has to consider a more aggressive play, to try to get something going.

Running 24/15, while often reasonable in the early game, is too loose, leaving 4 blots and lots of shots. Even if missed, Blue hasn't accomplished much and is struggling to clean up the position.

Blue's best idea is to split the back checkers with 24/20, attempting to make the advanced anchor. Normally this isn't desirable when White has three or more hitters, if there are any reasonable alternatives--but in this case, there really aren't. The time to split is now, before White has a chance to improve his position. White has a few strong pointing numbers, but most of his replies aren't great; in particular, 6s don't play well. Blue has good chances to make an anchor, or gain ground in the race by sending some of White's checkers back.

After splitting, Blue may as well use the 5 to start the 5 point rather than stacking on the 6 point. Either way he leaves a single shot at the remaining blot (which is duplicated to attack the blot on the 20 point). 

Pip counts:          Blue   162                     White  151

                     Blue                           White              
Candidate Plays      Equity   Win    G/BG    BG     Win    G/BG    BG  
10/5 24/20           -0.214   41.9%   7.9%   0.1%   58.1%  12.9%   0.4%
11/6 24/20           -0.264   39.9%   7.1%   0.1%   60.1%  13.0%   0.3%
10/5 8/4             -0.272   39.5%   8.4%   0.2%   60.5%  14.2%   0.5%
13/8 24/20           -0.283   39.6%   7.9%   0.2%   60.4%  14.9%   0.6%
10/5 6/2             -0.296   38.5%   8.0%   0.1%   61.5%  14.4%   0.4%
24/15                -0.298   39.8%   7.0%   0.1%   60.2%  16.1%   0.6%
11/6 10/6            -0.332   37.8%   6.7%   0.1%   62.2%  15.1%   0.3%




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