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BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY
Problem #29 solution
  		Match to 11
Blue 7, White 8

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0123456bar789101112
     Blue to play 32

Candidate plays:

  1. 13/10 6/4*
  2. 8/5 6/4*
  3. 6/3* 6/4*

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RK:
First, is it clear to hit loose at all? (You probably figured that one, since there weren't any candidate plays that didn't hit). Playing 13/8 is too passive for lots of reasons: Blue has a better board, White has no anchor, Blue does have one. The upside from hitting is big if you're not hit back, and things aren't too bad even if you get hit. So the big question is: should Blue hit twice? It gives White a double shot plus 1-1 and 2-2 (22 numbers). If Blue just hits on the 4 point, White has direct 4s plus 1-1, 2-2, 3-1, 2-1 (17 numbers). Only 5 extra shots for a double-hit? Looks good. Again, the upside is huge. If White misses, Blue is in doubling range. If White hits one of the blots, there are still good chances to cover the other one, and/or continue to attack. With an anchor, outfield control and better board, all factors point to aggression. 

Pip counts:          Blue   143                     White  138

                     Blue                           White              
Candidate Plays      Equity   Win    G/BG    BG     Win    G/BG    BG  
6/3* 6/4*            +0.261   58.7%  16.7%   0.4%   41.3%   8.3%   0.2%
13/10 6/4*           +0.194   56.7%  14.1%   0.3%   43.3%   8.2%   0.2%
8/5 6/4*             +0.170   55.5%  13.7%   0.3%   44.5%   7.7%   0.2%




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