Intro	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
	34	33	32	31	30	29	28	27	26	25	24	23	22	21	20	19	18

BACKGAMMON BY THE BAY Problem #10 solution		Match to 11 Blue 1, White 1
		Blue to play 41 Candidate plays: 13/8 8/4* 24/23 8/4* 22/21 8/4* 6/5 8/4*/3

RK:
Two questions here:

• Should Blue hit 8/4* despite having to break the 8 point to do so? Or should he make a "safer" play because of his racing lead?
• If he hits, should he keep the 4-point slotted, hoping to make it and gain an awesome board, or should he safety it with 4/3?

Unfortunately, a passive play like 13/8 isn't really safe, and simply lets White take the initiative. White has lots of chances to anchor or to attack Blue. Therefore, Blue needs to attack first. This takes advantage of his stronger board: after all, White fans 25% of the time. It also protects Blue's two blots in White's home board.

Once he attacks, then he can decide whether to think about safety. Lifting the blot with 4/3 greatly reduces the number of return shots from the bar (only 62 or 44 hit the blot on the 8 point). While he may not make the 4-point right away, Blue still has fairly good distribution for continuing the attack or making new points. Since Blue has 4 blots, getting one of them hit could lead to serious problems.

On the other hand, if Blue leaves the 4-point slotted, and doesn't get hit back, he's in great shape. In fact, if White fans, Blue has a very efficient double (that is, one that's close to the take/pass borderline). After the lifting play, if White fans, Blue can double but White has an easy take, because Blue isn't threatening to make the 4-point.

The rollout data show a clear preference for lifting the blot, and this makes sense since it's a "cubeless" rollout. The problem with leaving the blot is that you're taking a big risk, and if the risk pays off, you have a good position, but you still need to win the game. With the cube in play, the slotting play has more to gain, because Blue gains a lot of value from the cube after a fan by White. So it's probably closer than it looks (though I'd still play 8/4*/3).

---

Pip counts:          Blue   148                     White  161

                     Blue                           White              
Candidate Plays      Equity   Win    G/BG    BG     Win    G/BG    BG  
8/4*/3               +0.168   54.1%  19.9%   0.7%   45.9%  11.7%   0.4%
8/4* 24/23           +0.116   52.7%  18.9%   0.7%   47.3%  12.8%   0.6%
8/4* 22/21           +0.106   52.5%  18.9%   0.7%   47.5%  13.4%   0.7%
8/4* 6/5             +0.097   51.9%  19.1%   0.7%   48.1%  13.3%   0.6%
13/8                 +0.083   52.1%  14.7%   0.4%   47.9%  10.8%   0.3%

---

HOME
 
TOURNEYS
 
RESULTS
 
BROWNIE-POINTS
 
RATINGS
 
MEMBERS
 
ANNOTATED-GAMES
 
SONGS
 
CONTACTS

Copyright © 1996-2005 BackGammon By the Bay
Online Backgammon | Gammon Empire | Backgammon FAQ | RedTop's Backgammon Pages | Webby's Backgammon Site | Gratis Backgammon